With the prestigious and biggest night in cinema happening tomorrow night, I thought it wouldn’t be to late to share out my final predictions for the 2026 Oscars. It’s been a fun race to the finish line, but also a stressful one for avid predictors like myself. You have a plethora of acting races that are tight, the two titans of the year in Sinners and One Battle After Another battling it out. Even the race of international feature you can’t always count out. Even through the hard ones to pick, there’s always the definitive locks In the race. the ones bound to win from the beginning or bound to win from the evidence of sweeping all precursors. Then there’s even a happy medium, the ones that are almost definitive locks to win but could still go a certain way opposed to the one most in mind.
The perfect way to describe Oscar predictions and likelihood is by those three ranges which go into 3 categories: The Locks, The Maybes and The 50/50s, which are the three sectors I’ll be splitting my predictions into. Locks are ones bound to happen and almost guaranteed to happen. The maybes are probably going to win but still slightly undecided. The 50/50s however, are the most difficult part. They could go either way and are a pure toss up until the clock strikes onto that night of the ceremony. I’ll also be ranking all the predictions from first to last, most locked to win to least locked. So without further ado, here are my final predictions for the 2026 Oscars
The Locks:
1. Jessie Buckley for Best Actress
The easiest no brainier of the whole awards circuit, she’s swept every precursor and award leading up to now. It’s her’s to lose at this point. Even at the time of release before awards took off, it was easy to see her winning. Her performance and the movie itself met a shower of praise critically and from the industry, hailing it as an amazing shakespeare adaptation and an amazing portrait of grief. One thing to note is that the performance is right around the academy’s ballpark: tender, profound and filled with a wave of immense emotion and heart – the type of performance they often hail and love as incredible to get the award.
2. Avatar: Fire and Ash for VFX
James Cameron’s Avatar has a always been held up for visual innovation ever since its first installment. Avatar: Fire & Ash is just as much of a no brainier in that regard. While the film as a whole hasn’t received any overwhelming hype critically or audience wise, with its only one nomination being proof of industry as well, its strong suit has always been recognized as VFX. The evidence for it to win is strong with winning every major award in VFX leading up to this .
3. Kpop Demon Hunters for Best Animated Feature
After their run of heavily acclaimed original films and animated movies, Sony decided to make an attempt to continue that hot streak by releasing a new film on Netflix called Kpop Demon Hunters, a movie about a group of singers who fight demons with the power of their music. Safe to say Sony met their goal not too long after the film released from seeing the overwhelming attention it got globally just days after releasing. The film was a cultural and mainstream phenomenon, highlighting K-pop culture on a large stage of animated slices and reaching a mass audience of kids alike who now sing along to the famous song from the movie “Golden almost everyday. It’s one nearly every award it needs to so far in the season, and gained the support in the industry from many eyes for bringing something new and refreshing to the table of modern kids animation.
4. Frankenstein for Costume Design, Production Design, and Makeup and Hairstyling
One of the most sprawling epics in terms of atmosphere and in general this year was seen as Frankenstein, Guillermo Del Toro’s swing on the famous creature story originally made to life from Mary Shelley’s novel. Frankenstein’s narrative and Del Toro’s take on it arguably has a few kinks storytelling wise, but its technical aspects are fairly undisputable to the general consensus. It’s a movie made for the most technical care and focus, with its attention and focus to the specific period details like long and puffed fancy dresses or the large lair where Victor crafts his most famous invention. It’s a film that’s bound to need a ton of attention to atmospheric looks of the film and with that comes being bound to be recognized for that hard work the technical department does to immerse you into the sprawling world of the period and mythical elements. That’s been proof all season long, as Frankenstein has won nearly every precursor for all 3 categories all season long.
5. Sinners for Best Original Screenplay
Arguably the easiest Sinners win to predict out of its bunch it’ll win from the 16 nominations it got. Right from the get go of watching Sinners and seeing the discourse unfold, the main part praised is Ryan Coogler’s excellent script with bold swings and daring to hit so many topics of black American culture like blues music and their roots of being tormented by racism and colonialism. criticism of it being too expansive of a world still don’t apply to this conversation, as it still has plenty of goods and profound commentary to offer just from those themes clashing. It fits the “original” in original screenplay perfectly for what academy voters are looking for, with being one of the most innovative and unique examples of genre and theme bending we’ve seen this decade so far and not to mention the most we’ve seen it done in the blockbuster landscape in a while. The industry supports Sinners bold and proud for bringing back the sauce blockbuster crowd pleasers have needed for ages, and they won’t fail to uphold that love again without a doubt
6. Sinners for Casting and Score
Sinners has all but one of their 4 wins locked which I’ll get to later, but for now the two they have in the bag are also Casting and score, both one of the two key components to make Sinners complete. The casting is undeniably incredible with everyone pitching in and carrying a weight to the script the moment they appear on screen. It was gonna be an ensemble centered film from the beginning and always, with the focal point of black culture in general making everybody operate as crucial central characters in one way or another. Another component is the score, ranging from riveting and electric to emotion and poignant all thanks to Ludwig Goransson who has already garnered two Oscar with his other collaboration with Ryan Coogler on Black Panther and his most recent win with Oppenheimer. Safe to say with the acclaim of his work, he’s right on his way to a third Oscar and possibly many more in the years to come as he continues to have opportunities to showcase his musical ability.
7. Paul Thomas Anderson for Best Director
With one Battle After Another, the film’s been met with an overwhelming amount of praise. It’s technically sharp, adventurous and endlessly grand of a time, immersing you into the political tension and ultimate impact of the narrative. The film’s even been held up as director Paul Thomas Anderson’s best work by some, and that’s saying a lot considering his deep filmography of acclaimed pieces of work like Boogie Nights, There Will Be Blood, Magnolia, and even more believe it or not.What’s more astounding than that however, is that he has never won an Oscar for Best director up to this point. With that, there’s a general agreement that Anderson is fairly overdue for the award ten feature films deep.
8. F1 for Best Sound
F1s became this year’s Oscar villain for many fans around, as it nabbed a spot in Best Picture unexpectedly that many find undeserving, but one aspect of the film that’s been praised is its technical precision in fast racing sequences. Its strong suit in that regard, specifically to detail in sound departments, have been heavily praised by many tech purists in support of the film in the industry. After all, its guaranteed spot in editing and sound was what got it a chance at a Best Picture nomination anyway, as it wasn’t well rounded enough to make more top of the line general categories
9. One Battle After Another for Editing and Best Adapted Screenplay
Despite Sinner’s acclaim and whopping 16 nominations, its still pretty likely for One Battle to be the bigger winner on Oscar night considering the heavily stacked tech categories. two categories One Battle After Another could easily grab are editing and Adapted Screenplay. The editing with its careful touches of ways to establish tension, has been said for quite a while in the season to be banked for an editing win. There’s also a large correlation between the editing wins and Best Picture contenders which is an important part to consider It’s been given nothing but love in the script department, with it being described as the most relevant film of the decade so far. Chloe Zhao’s Hamnet screenplay has also been beloved as a bleak yet hopeful shakespeare adaptation, but may not be strong enough for the win with not being top 2 in the Best Picture race above One Battle After Another.
The Maybes
10. Sean Penn for Best Supporting Actor
One of the performances that could easily be held up in the locked category right up with Jessie could be Sean Penn in his infamous corrupt villain role in One Battle After Another. It’s an amazing portrayal of a morally wretched person, with his menace, anger and unforgivable spirit of hate shining through in his depiction of Col. Lockjaw. He’s also taken 2 Oscar already previously. The one thing holding him back however is that over the years he’s been generally disliked by many and showed disdain toward the Oscars, with having a strong possibility of him not attending tomorrow’s ceremony. that leads to the conclusion that others in the running much more liked and well overdue for one like Stellan Skarsgard or Delroy Lindo could win. Many however in the past have ran away from Oscar attention and still won though, and Penn could be another example still with being In a strong movie up for many Oscars
11. Golden for Best Original Song
With Golden’s success on all fronts, it’s pretty inevitable for it to win at this point of the race. It’s won every precursor and had the commercial and worldwide connection, with even being a mainstream hit song beyond just the landscape of film. The only argument that puts it to the bottom of the locks is the love for the masterful arrangement of music culture, vocals and production in “I Lied to You”, which could be a possible last minute upset despite its lack of success all season long
12. One Battle After Another for Cinematography
In a situation that could be described similarly to Golden vs I Lied to you, One Battle is not yet locked for cinematography with Sinners creeping up. No major precursors like the golden globes have really been a deciding factor in the race, but One Battle’s recent win from the industry award from American Society of cinematographers, many think One Battle’s acclaim from its sleek VistaVision color grade and iconic road scene its about confirmed to win. But Sinners could provide a challenge with its industry praise for its stunning use of IMAX cameras and aspect ratio change, specifically in the surreal montage scene. Ultimately, it’s a battle of format preference from the voters, but One Battle’s package of taking home more Oscars leads me to believe that it will be our winner for cinematography to complete that prediction
13. Amy Madigan for Best Supporting Actress
Madigan’s pretty much been dominating the award circuit all season, with a Globe and SAG win as well as much acclaim from the industry to land her the Oscar nomination. Amy Madigan has also been respected as an actress in the industry for decades which draws a better audience to a less established actress like Teyana Taylor. The reason to not sleep on Taylor however, is because of One Battle’s best picture contention package she’s in opposed to Amy playing a lone game in weapons. Wunmi Mosaku is also in the same boat, but Madigan has just seemed quite too strong the entire season in terms of individual support compared to them.
The 50/50s
14. The Secret Agent for Best International Feature
The Secret Agent is way more likely to win than many think. It’s a cultural piece of importance to Brazil and its state, Similar to I’m Still Here’s win last year, and it has the leg up on current buzz. The Secret Agent despite its 2025 release, had a much later wide distribution than its competitor in Sentimental Value, which ultimately gives it the advantage of maintaining relevancy among the industry and voters with it still being actively fresh in many minds. Sentimental Value on the other hand, is still in strong contention with higher overall critic praise and 4 acting nominations compared to Moura’s lone star. The Secret Agent is a pick to be confident in, but still a risk.
15. One Battle After Another for Best Picture
The trickiest part about predicting these awards this season has always been credited to choosing between the two titans this year of One Battle After Another and Sinners battling it out in multiple categories, including the most prestigious one of Best Picture. Overall, One Battle has the large advantage with winning majority of the precursor picture awards over Sinners. It’s also widely regarded as a masterpiece in relevancy and political commentary on the modern state of the world’s political corruption, being held as the most timely movie possible. But Sinners however, also has a similar sentiment. It’s timeless, spanning generations of black and blues culture and being the most relevant film culturally this year and this decade arguably. They’re both great films and their own right and have an equal amount of personal impact with audiences, only hitting different parts of the soul. Sinners has also gained much momentum in awards season, specifically with the academy for its 16 Oscar nomination. Sinners is a very high contender to win, but would still have to pull off an upset win given One Battle After Another’s acclaim and success throughout the season outpacing them by a few short smidges
16. Michael B. Jordan for Best Actor
The closest race leading up to tomorrow night belongs to the best actor category, featuring a standoff between Timothee Chalamet and Michael B Jordan. they both have different career trajectories but similar current predicaments: both with their roles many hold as their respective best in their career so far. the difference as I said, lies in trajectory of their careers. Timothee is hardly near the peak of Oscar chances, as a heavily sought after actor with plenty more chances lined up for him to nab an Oscar sooner or later. He’s young right at 30 with plenty of chances compared to Michael B Jordan who’s had limited shots to win the Oscar in his career up until this point. It’s ultimately the definitive memorable effort in his career as a film and performance, with him playing two twins deeply distinctively in persona that caters and slips seemlessly into the nuance of Coogler’s script. The advantage Timtohee has however, is his one man show in the film and dominance in awards season so far. He’s the sole factor that ultimately drove Marty Supreme to its industry acclaim and Oscar noms with his presence of his radiant and confident portrayal of the charismatic, assertive but arrogant, impulsive Marty Mauser. his independency of driving this film all the way to the Oscars however is where the weakness also lies in his campaign. He’s playing a lone game with Marty Supreme, with not nearly enough industry support with the film compared to Sinners to be fully trusted for a win. There are still compelling arguments for him, with his campaign and performance working twice thus far at the Golden Globes and Critic’s choice awards.
